It's that time when I dust off the snow boots, get the overcoat back from the dry cleaner, and try to find the scarf and gloves that are used only once a year. The annual trek up the Swiss Alps beckons, to mingle with the glitterati, movers and shakers, and masters of the universe at the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos.
Some cynics dismiss the Davos bash as an irrelevant talking shop — all hot air in a cold climate — that’s little more than an excuse for some fun in the snow and some time on the piste.
But I always find it an intellectually stimulating occasion, an opportunity to take an early-year sounding of the state of the world. All that sub-zero Alpine air blows away the festive cobwebs and gets you thinking straight again.
And, of course, for a journalist it’s the best networking event in the world. WEF 2018 promises to be the best for many years. Here — in rough order of priority — are the questions I’m hoping to get answered at the event:
1. How will President Trump go down among the global elite that he affects to despise? Having the “America First” populist in the midst of the “swamp” he wants to drain should be fascinating. WEF plenary sessions — the big set pieces that world leaders use to tell their message — are usually indulgent places, but the mood among the audience is transmitted almost by osmosis. Theresa May, the British prime minister, drew some “tut-tuts” from the crowd with her pro-Brexit declarations last year. Will the US president win them over to his anti-globalist ways? Or will they react more noisily to his message? I’m betting he will make some friends, but also confirm his enemies’ worst fears.
2. What will be the global judgment on Saudi Arabia’s dramatic year of change? The Davos constituency of business leaders and financiers have a keen interest in the economic transformation underway in the Kingdom, while the proponents of greater liberalization will applaud moves toward gender equality and cultural change. But there is also likely to be a significant portion critical of Saudi Arabia’s assertive moves in regional foreign policy. Which will prevail in the overall assessment of the Kingdom by its global peers?
3. Will “sustainability” remain the WEF buzzword? The idea of promoting a sustainable planet amid all the private jets, helicopters and Cadillacs might seem bizarre, but environmentally aware policies and initiatives have been the central themes of recent WEF events. Serious business leaders are increasingly factoring in these issues in their strategic plans, and environmental concerns are top of the WEF’s global risks. Will anything concrete emerge in this respect from WEF 2018?
4. Will women make further progress at Davos? Gender equality is another of the WEF’s long-held policy stances. It makes economic sense, as much as being transparently more just in a social and cultural sense, as the Arab world is increasingly convinced. For the first time at WEF 2018, all of the meeting’s seven co-chairs are women. But the event remains a predominantly male affair, in terms of the gender of attendees. “Spouses and partners” are welcomed, but Davos Man still rules, though he is a little less assertive about it in the MeToo age. Will there be a significant change at this Davos? I suspect not much.
5. What is the mood among the “masters of the universe,” the financial and economic titans who run the world and traditionally dominate Davos? They are in a good place at the moment, with global economic growth forecast strong in 2018, world stock markets at record highs and several big “liquidity events” expected this year, not least the record-breaking initial public offering of Saudi Aramco. On the other hand, valuations are at all-time highs, and some are expecting the “Trump boom” to give way to bust later this year. Has the world learned from the global financial crisis? Davos is the place to find out.
6. What does Elton John make of it all? The aging rocker is one of the celebrity attendees at this year’s WEF, along with Hollywood actress Cate Blanchett, rapper-with-a-brain will.i.am, and Bollywood star Shah Rukh Khan. If I get close enough, I want to ask Cate about the making of the moving refugee poem “What They Took With Them,” will.i.am about urban infrastructure investment patterns in the US rust-belt, and Shah about the initiatives of his Prime Minister Modi (also present at Davos) to cut through bureaucratic red tape in Indian business. I will ask Elton, who is giving a talk on leadership, what he thinks of the other “rocket man,” Kim Jong-un, leader of North Korea.

Global economies are recovering simultaneously and at a stronger pace, and will get at least a short-term boost from the US tax cuts, the International Monetary Fund said Monday.

In the latest update to the IMF's World Economic Outlook, nearly all the forecasts for 2018 and 2019 were revised upward compared to the October edition.

However, the fund warns that exuberant financial markets could be due for a reversal.

The global economy is now expected to grow 3.9 percent this year and next, two-tenths higher than the previous estimate, and up from 3.7 percent in 2017.

Advanced economies are seeing solid simultaneous growth, and the US tax reform passed just before Christmas will have a measurable effect, at least for a couple of years.

"The revision reflects increased global growth momentum and the expected impact of the recently approved US tax policy changes," the IMF said.

"Some 120 economies, accounting for three quarters of world GDP, have seen a pickup in growth in year-on-year terms in 2017, the broadest synchronized global growth upsurge since 2010."

The WEO upgraded the US GDP forecast by a surprising four-tenths of a point this year to 2.7 percent, compared to the expected 2.3 percent in 2017.

And for 2019, the IMF increased its US growth forecast a whopping 0.6 points from October to 2.5 percent.

The corporate tax cuts are seen driving investment, which could add growth of 1.2 percent to the US economy through 2020, while also contributing to the faster expansion in US trading partners like Mexico

Source: AFP

President Emmanuel Macron's campaign for a "French Renaissance" kicks into overdrive Monday as he welcomes 140 multinational business leaders before this week's jamboree of the rich and powerful in Davos.

The business-friendly president will host executives at the grand Versailles chateau near Paris for an event billed as a warm-up for Tuesday's opening of the World Economic Forum in the Swiss mountains.

Several firms will use the conference to announce major French investments, with Facebook revealing early Monday that it will pour an extra 10 million euros ($12.2 million) into its artificial intelligence centre in Paris.

Japan's Toyota is also due to reveal details of its 400 million euro ($490 million) enlargement of its Onnaing car factory in northern France, with Les Echos newspaper reporting the move will bring 700 new jobs.

A former investment banker, Macron has vowed to shake the French economy out of its torpor with corporate tax cuts and reforms to the country' famously rigid labour laws.

Economic growth has been forecast to remain at a relatively weak 1.7 percent for both 2017 and 2018, although figures have been ticking up in recent months.

A survey by the US Chamber of Commerce and consultancy Bain & Company in November found a record 72 percent of US investors were optimistic about the French economy, a huge hike against 30 percent in 2016.

- 'Choose France' -

Macron's predecessors have held similar gatherings of CEOs, but the scale of his "Choose France" conference goes far beyond those hosted by Francois Hollande or Nicolas Sarkozy.

The Socialist Hollande hosted 34 world business leaders in 2014, while rightwinger Sarkozy rolled out the red carpet for 25 in 2011.

"We've taken advantage of the fact that economic leaders are coming to Europe by inviting 100 CEOs of the biggest world companies and developing 100 projects with them for France," the presidency said.

Macron will be flanked by 15 ministers at the conference, which comes the night before leaders from 60 countries and 1,700 businesses start descending on Davos for the world's most exclusive talking shop.

The French president himself takes to the stage in Davos on Wednesday, where he is set to cut a contrasting figure with that of US President Donald Trump.

While Trump campaigned on an anti-elitist platform that railed against globalisation, Macron has defended globalisation, though he will call for a more balanced form of it in his Davos speech.

The 40-year-old centrist has been carving out an active role on the world stage since winning the French presidency last May, and will use his speech to "propose his international vision for the world of tomorrow", his team said.

The speech will touch on three major challenges, according to Macron's office: growing inequality, the need for better environmental protection, and global governance in the face of nationalism and extremism.

He is due to speak the same day as German Chancellor Angela Merkel and two days before Trump -- although officials have warned that the US government shutdown could scupper the president's plans to attend.

Source: AFP

With the World Economic Forum kicking off in earnest on Tuesday, AFP presents a guide to the week-long event in the Swiss Alps.

- WHAT IS ‘DAVOS‘? -

Davos is shorthand for the World Economic Forum (WEF), which in its original guise was founded in 1971 by German business professor Klaus Schwab as a way for European corporate leaders to learn from their US counterparts.

Political leaders started attending later in the 1970s, and since then it has morphed into an annual jamboree where the global elite – joined by intellectuals, activists, celebrities and sometimes protestors -- debate the world’s problems.

- WHO’S COMING? -

Who isn’t coming, more like. Among the 2,500 delegates and 70 world leaders, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be the first of the week's keynote speakers on Tuesday.

Every European leader of note will be in attendance – including Emmanuel Macron of France, Germany’s Angela Merkel, Britain’s Theresa May and Paolo Gentiloni of Italy.

A large contingent is coming from Africa, including Emmerson Mnangagwa, the successor to Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe, plus a smattering from Latin America such as the presidents of Brazil and Argentina.

Influential thinkers such as Israeli “Homo Deus” author Yuval Noah Harari and Harvard psychologist Steven Pinker will be on hand along with Pakistani Nobel Peace Prize winner Malala Yousafzai and celebrities Elton John, Cate Blanchett and the Bollywood baddie Shah Rukh Khan.

But top billing has to go to US President Donald Trump, who is due to close the conference with a speech on Friday – provided he is not held back by a US government shutdown.

His mantra of "America First" is the antithesis of the liberal world order cherished by the Davos crowd – free trade, open borders and respect for cultural diversity.

- WHAT’S ON THE AGENDA? -

The overarching theme this year is “Creating a Shared Future in a Fractured World”.

From breakfast seminars to midnight drinks, via film screenings and morning sessions of meditation and yoga, every day is packed.

Panel discussions feature leaders from the worlds of business, finance, science and the arts. Many of the panels will revolve around the theme of the "Fourth Industrial Revolution", how to equip today’s workers to survive the advent of automation and artificial intelligence.

Others will look at geostrategic challenges in the era of Trump, Brexit and identity politics; how to decipher fact from fiction in the age of "fake news"; exploiting machine intelligence in health, and combatting "the next pandemic"; risks to high-flying financial markets; making economic growth inclusive; and the future of food.

And those are all just on the first day.

While only one-fifth of attendees are women, the organisers are keen to harness discussion about the #MeToo movement with an array of panels looking at gender equality.

It would be a surprise to find Trump at one of the WEF’s sessions illustrating “A Day in the Life of a Refugee” or joining a Thursday night panel on climate change with former vice president Al Gore.

Gore is showing a special screening of the sequel to his global-warming documentary "An Inconvenient Truth". The follow-up is called "An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power".

- HOW TO CHILL? -

Chilling in a literal sense is not hard in Davos, Switzerland’s highest alpine village where the snowfall has been even heavier than usual this winter.

The bad weather has disrupted train and road links from the nearest big city of Zurich. Not that that should unduly bother the VIPs, who routinely take helicopters to access the WEF.

If you’re a delegate and want to hit the shops, you’ll probably be out of luck. Many retail outlets and even a church are handing over their premises – for hefty rents – to corporate clients to use as their base for the week. Other residents are happy to lease out their homes to the visiting jet-set, and hotel rates are astronomical.

But for downtime and networking, the WEF is unsurpassed for the breadth of opportunities it gives attendees to rub shoulders with the great, the good and the obscenely (as some would say) wealthy.

They can tramp through the snow (or take chauffer-driven limos) to national-themed buffets, followed by corporate-sponsored cocktails with canapés catered by celebrity chefs, followed by nightcaps touting other companies and countries.

- WHO’S NOT INVITED? -

Trump’s presence has invigorated anti-globalisation protestors.

While some 4,000 Swiss soldiers and police will keep a close eye on the Davos environs, one group of young socialists intends to rally in the village itself when the US president arrives on Thursday, giving voice to nearly 17,000 people who have signed a petition declaring Trump is not welcome in Switzerland.

Beyond Davos, a bigger anti-Trump protest is expected in Zurich on Tuesday.

And beyond Switzerland, a group called Fight Inequality intends to contrast the mountain of Davos with the mountain of garbage disfiguring one Nairobi slum with a concert in the Kenyan capital.

That is one of several events around the world designed to spotlight the chasm of income and opportunity that lies between the “one percent” meeting in Davos and the vast majority of humanity elsewhere.

Source: AFP

 President Trump early Wednesday morning lashed out at the father of one of the three UCLA basketball players arrested in China for shoplifting earlier this month, referring to LaVar Ball as a "poor man's version of Don King" and an "ungrateful fool."

Top oil exporter Saudi Arabia called Sunday for extending cooperation between OPEC and non-OPEC producers beyond 2018, after a deal to cut output succeeded in shoring up prices.

The call, the first explicit invitation by Riyadh for long-term cooperation between oil producers, came with oil prices topping $70 a barrel thanks to the deal, after they dove below $30 a barrel in early 2016.

"We should not limit our efforts to 2018. We need to be talking about a longer framework for our cooperation," Saudi Energy Minister Khaled al-Faleh told reporters before a meeting between ministers of OPEC and non-OPEC countries in the Omani capital Muscat.

At the end of the meeting, attended by several OPEC and non-OPEC countries including the world's top producer Russia, Faleh said conformity levels were excellent.

He said that compliance level was 129 percent in December and was 107 percent for the whole of 2017.

The production cuts deal has removed two-thirds of the 330 million barrels of extra stocks that were on the market before the agreement, Faleh said.

He said improvement in the oil market will continue throughout this year and expected that "beyond 2018, we will continue to cooperate through these joint action mechanisms ... to avoid strong fluctuations that led to the oversupply glut".

Oil producers from inside and outside the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries signed a landmark agreement in November 2016 to cut output by 1.8 million barrels per day to fight oversupply and lift sagging prices.

That deal was initially for six months, but the 14-member cartel and 10 independent producers have since extended it until the end of this year.

- 'We must not relax' -

Amid talk of exiting the deal at the end of the year, the Saudi minister said the agreement should be extended for an unspecified duration.

"I am talking about extending the framework that we started –- which is the declaration of cooperation... beyond 2018," Faleh told reporters.

Faleh however said the new framework for cooperation might differ from the current agreement and its production quotas.

"It does not necessarily mean sticking barrel by barrel" to the same agreement.

It would mean "assuring stakeholders, investors, consumers and the global community that (the agreement) is here to stay".

It would send the message that "we are going to work together not only with the 24 countries, but inviting more and more participants," he said.

Faleh said oil producers had not yet achieved their target of reducing world stocks to normal levels and striking a balance between supply and demand.

"That objective has not been achieved. We are not close to achieving it," said Faleh, adding that a rebalance is unlikely in the first half of 2018.

Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said oil producers should not ease off on their efforts despite the rebound.

"Despite the fact that progress is obvious, we must not relax. We are determined to carry through the rebalancing," Novak, whose country is the world's top crude producer, told reporters.

Novak held separate talks with Faleh on the sidelines of the Muscat meeting.

The Russian minister praised the outcome of the cuts deal.

"The market got on the way towards balancing and we jointly managed to reduce the surplus in stocks by more than half," Novak said.

- 'Consultations' -

But Novak but appeared less committed to the idea of establishing a permanent framework.

"As for efforts to coordinate joint actions on the oil market, the last year showed that this is a successful experiment," he told reporters, according to Russia's RIA Novosti news agency.

"I think that if necessary it can be used in the future too."

But "mutual action between OPEC and non-OPEC countries" could also continue after the end of the agreement in the form of "consultations", Novak added.

Omani Oil Minister Mohamed al-Rumhi said different arrangements could be discussed.

"By the end of this year, the stock level will be very small and it will be time to discuss different arrangements or agreements," he said.

Gulf states as well as many oil-producing nations have posted huge budget shortfalls since oil prices plummeted in mid-2014.

A compelling clash of cultures will unfold in the vertiginous Swiss Alps this week as Donald Trump, just over 12 months into his high-wire presidency, confronts the cheerleaders of globalisation in Davos.

Having whipped up working-class resentment of the global elite to devastating effect en route to the White House, the US president's "America First" vision will run headlong into the haughty ambition of the World Economic Forum (WEF) to map out "a shared future in a fractured world".

The 2017 gathering ended on the same day as Trump was inaugurated, and many of the discussions during the week dwelt anxiously on what his presidency would portend.

China's President Xi Jinping, the star turn in Davos last year, exploited such misgivings to stake out an alternative vision for the international economy with China playing a lead role in both trade and fighting climate change.

A year on, Trump will be closing the conference with a speech next Friday.

He faced a budget mess at home, where the US government officially shut down on Saturday after lawmakers failed to agree a stop-gap spending deal.

The president is relishing his role as apostate-in-chief bent on demolishing the pieties held dear by the WEF, which is drawing some 70 other leaders along with thousands of delegates from the worlds of industry, finance and show business, plus protesters opposed to the US president.

The property mogul's final election campaign advertisement of November 2016 made the distinction brutally clear, casting himself as the defender of hard-working Americans against "global special interests", over images of Davos perennials such as financier George Soros and Goldman Sachs chief Lloyd Blankfein.

Both are Jewish, and the ad was assailed as anti-semitic by critics.

- Best behaviour? -

So why consort in the Swiss Alps with people who are hate figures to his political base?

In a recent interview with The Wall Street Journal, Trump said part of his motivation in becoming the first US president to attend Davos since Bill Clinton in 2000 was to be an unabashed "cheerleader for the country".

Trump also pointed to quickening US economic growth and a roaring stock market as reasons to cheer when he and a large part of his cabinet join leaders such as French President Emmanuel Macron, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Brazilian President Michel Temer in Switzerland.

On Monday, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) will present in Davos an updated overview of the global economy, which is indeed expanding at a broad and healthy clip.

But ahead of the meetings, a WEF survey of nearly 1,000 experts and decision-makers underlined growing anxiety about the risks of environmental disaster and armed conflict -- not least involving North Korea and the United States, after months of bellicose rhetoric from Trump.

Douglas Rediker, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington who was appointed by Trump's predecessor Barack Obama to the IMF's executive board, said there was no way to reconcile the WEF's globalist outlook and the Trump dogma.

"It will be a jarring visit even if the president is on his best diplomatic behaviour. And that's a big if," Rediker said.

- Davos Woman -

Trump will be running up against internationalist foils in Davos this week such as German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Macron, who has subverted one of the US president's signature lines with his own motto of "Make our planet great again".

The White House said he plans to meet Britain's Prime Minister Theresa May, days after he cancelled a planned trip to London that had cast further doubt on the strength of the vaunted trans-Atlantic "special relationship".

The organisers, mindful of the globe-trotting but all-male caricature of "Davos Man", are also keen to extol their efforts to promote representation by women, as sexual harassment and the gender pay gap move up the political agenda worldwide.

"Davos Women" will account for 21 percent of the total number of delegates this year, the highest ever proportion, if still relatively meagre. They include IMF chief Christine Lagarde, IBM head Ginni Rometty and screen star Cate Blanchett.

Cue another clash of visions given the presence of Trump, whose election campaign in 2016 was nearly upended late on by a leaked recording in which he boasted of groping women.

And there will be no shortage of movers and shakers from Africa in attendance, should the president wish to explain his recent reported dismissal of countries across Africa as "shitholes".

The politicians will join the chiefs of some 1,900 companies to debate a panoply of issues such as the future of work in an age of automation and artificial intelligence, tackling "the next pandemic", and leveraging the potential of virtual currencies.

Yet there is no escaping the long shadow cast over the event by Trump, as the convention-shredding president bids to make good on his Davos-baiting promises.

WEF founder Klaus Schwab is not giving up hope.

"No country alone, no stakeholder alone, no individual alone, can solve the issues on the global agenda. No issue can be solved in an isolated way," he said.

Source: AFP

President Rodrigo Duterte has banned Philippine citizens from travelling to Kuwait to work following reports of widespread abuse and exploitation, his spokesman said Saturday.

Duterte ordered the ban after reports emerged about the deaths of several Filipina women in the Gulf state, his spokesman Harry Roque said.

"In line with his presidential pronouncement, Labour Secretary Silvestre Bello has ordered the suspension of the deployment of workers to Kuwait," Roque told reporters.

"There is really excessive suffering over there," Roque said, adding that the ban was "long overdue".

An estimated 10 million Filipinos work overseas and the money they send home is a major pillar of the Philippine economy.

It was not immediately clear how long the ban, which does not affect workers already in Kuwait, would last.

In his speech before overseas workers on Thursday, Duterte said he would urge the Kuwaiti government to act against the abuses.

"My advice is, we talk to them, state the truth and just tell them that it's not acceptable anymore. Either we impose a total ban or we can have (disagreements)," Duterte said.

"I do not want a quarrel with Kuwait. I respect their leaders, but they have to do something about this," he added.

Spokesmen for the Kuwaiti embassy in Manila could not be reached for comment.

Kuwait has faced criticism in the past over its "kafala" system for foreign workers which has been likened to a form of bonded labour or even slavery.

The kafala system prevents workers from moving to a new job before their contracts end without their boss's consent, resulting in a wide range of abuses.

The Gulf state is a major destination for migrant workers with the Kuwaiti government estimating that more than 170,000 Philippine nationals live there. Other groups have far higher estimates.

Source: AFP

British shop sales slid by much more than expected in December, capping off the weakest year for retail since 2013 as consumers squeezed by the Brexit hit to prices continued to keep a tight grip on spending.

Retail sales volumes dropped 1.5 percent from November, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said, well below economists' forecasts of a monthly dip of 0.6 percent in a Reuters poll, and more than reversing a 1.0 percent rise in November.

That marked the biggest month-on-month fall since June 2016, the month Britons voted to leave the European Union, as well as the weakest December performance for seven years.

Britain's economy slowed in 2017 as higher inflation - caused by the post-referendum fall in the pound - hurt the spending power of consumers, although forecasts of a bigger hit to growth were confounded.

Friday's data pushed the pound down against the dollar and British government bond prices hit a session high.

The Bank of England, which is considering when to follow up on November's first rate hike in a decade, expects the squeeze will ease in 2018 as inflation cools and wage growth ticks higher. Recent surveys of consumers suggest they do not share the central bank's optimism right now.

"The longer-term picture is one of slowing growth, with increased prices squeezing people's spending," ONS statistician Rhian Murphy said about Friday's data.

Many shoppers brought forward their Christmas spending into November to take advantage of Black Friday sales promotions, the ONS said.

Black Friday promotions have become commonplace in Britain only in the last few years, making it difficult for the ONS to adjust its data so figures for November and December can be compared easily from year to year.

But whatever distortions were caused by Black Friday sales, analysts were doubtful it did retailers any good.

"All of this discounting is likely to have decimated profit margins and retailers will be counting the cost," said Richard Lim, chief executive at consultancy Retail Economics.

On Friday, Britain's biggest floor coverings retailer Carpetright (L:CPRC) lost almost half of its stock market value after it warned on its full-year profits, blaming a drop in consumer confidence.

Retailers have reported mixed fortunes over the Christmas period.

Last week Britain's biggest retailer Tesco (L:TSCO) missed forecasts for Christmas trading as strong food sales were undermined by weak demand for general goods such as DVDs and computer games. Discount supermarkets saw strong growth.

Looking at the fourth quarter as a whole, which smooths out monthly volatility in the data, the ONS said sales growth slowed to 0.4 percent, compared with 0.8 percent in the third quarter.

As a result, retail sales will contribute almost nothing to economic growth in the last three months of 2017.

Retail sales volumes for 2017 as a whole grew by 1.9 percent, a far cry from the 4.7 percent increase in 2016 and marking the weakest full-year performance since 2013.

 Dirty money from eastern Europe is flowing through companies registered to nondescript properties across Scotland in a practice that has alarmed global campaigners and policymakers, experts say.

Iraq signed a contract Thursday with British energy giant BP aimed at more than doubling production from oil fields in the northern province of Kirkuk that were retaken from the Kurds last year.

The agreement was signed by Iraqi Oil Minister Jabbar al-Luaybi in Kirkuk, north of Baghdad, where the North Oil Company has its headquarters, AFP reporters said.

Iraqi forces reclaimed a string of major oil fields in Kirkuk after Iraqi Kurds in September voted for independence in a controversial referendum opposed by Baghdad.

The Kurds had taken over the fields in 2014 during the chaos of the Islamic State group's rampage across the country and exported oil to Turkey through their own pipeline.

Experts say work to renovate a parallel Iraqi pipeline could take up to two years.

Kirkuk province now has a production capacity of 420,000 barrels a day (bpd), according to Baghdad, but only 120,000 barrels a day are being pumped and exports from the region are at a halt.

The oil ministry said Thursday's deal aims "to increase production by 750,000 barrels per day".

Luaybi added that he would visit Turkey "soon, to study ways of reaching a deal on the pipeline from Kirkuk to the Turkish port of Ceyhan".

Iraq, the second largest producer in the OPEC cartel after Saudi Arabia, signed a consultancy contract with BP in 2013 to help the state-owned North Oil Company to develop the Havana and Baba Gurgur fields in Kirkuk province.

But it was never implemented as Baghdad lost control of the fields to Kurdish forces the following year.

Iraq reported its oil exports hit 109.6 million barrels a day in December, the same month that the government announced victory over IS.

Iraq in 2017 earned around $6.5 billion (5.3 billion euros) from crude sales, at $59.3 per barrel.

Source: AFP

Sudanese security agents arrested the leader of the opposition Communist Party on Wednesday after it organised a protest in the capital Khartoum against rising bread prices, its spokesman told AFP.

Sporadic protests have erupted in parts of Sudan, including Khartoum, after bread prices more than doubled earlier this month following a jump in the cost of flour.

On Tuesday, hundreds of Sudanese demonstrated near the presidential palace in response to a call by the Communist Party.

Anti-riot police fired tear gas and beat protesters with batons to disperse the crowd.

Early on Wednesday, agents of the National Intelligence and Security Service (NISS) arrested the Communist Party's leader, spokesman Ali Saeed said.

"Today, at 3:00 am (0100 GMT), two trucks full of armed men from NISS came to the house of our general secretary Mokhtar al-Khatib and took him to an unknown location," Saeed told AFP.

"We don't know where he is but we do know that it was NISS that took him."

Several other senior Communist Party figures, student leaders and activists have already been arrested since the bread price protests began.

The Communist Party said its members would continue to mobilise people and organise demonstrations, while the country's main opposition Umma Party has called an anti-government demonstration for later on Wednesday.

The protests erupted after the cost of a 50 kilogramme (110 pound) sack of flour jumped from 167 Sudanese pounds to 450 ($9 to $25) as wheat supplies dwindled following the government's decision to leave grain imports to private companies.

So far they have been sporadic and quickly broken up by security forces. A student was killed during a protest in the western region of Darfur on January 7.

Similar protests were held in late 2016 after the government cut fuel subsidies.

The authorities cracked down on those protests to prevent a repeat of the deadly unrest that followed an earlier round of subsidy cuts in 2013.

Dozens of people were killed when security forces crushed the 2013 demonstrations, drawing international condemnation.

Watchmakers at the industry's major fair in Geneva this week said they are bringing themselves up to speed in the digital age following China's economic recovery.

Leading economists from France and Germany on Wednesday called for new fiscal rules for the eurozone and the creation of an independent watchdog to help to make the single currency more resilient against crises in the future.

In a 33-page paper, the economists warned that even if the single currency area was "finally experiencing a robust recovery... after nearly a decade of stagnation", it "remains fragile."

Germany and France are currently trying to inject new momentum into stalled EU reform efforts.

And the economists' "blueprint for reform" is intended to bridge German demands for more fiscal discipline and France's insistence on more risk-sharing.

The paper, entitled "Reconciling risk-sharing with market discipline: A constructive approach to eurozone reform", is authored by top economists from institutes such as Bruegel, Ifo and DIW, as well as Sciences Po in Paris.

Despite the ongoing economic recovery, the case "for a reform of the eurozone architecture is strong", the economists said, calling for "a shift in the fiscal and financial governance of the eurozone."

The fiscal rules laid out in the EU's Stability and Growth Pact -- notably the rule that member states are not allowed to run up deficits in excess of 3.0 percent of their economies -- "have not worked well," the economists wrote.

- 'Transparent and simple' -

"Excessive public debts have accumulated because of banking crises and the Great Recession (of 2008), but also because either countries did not abide by European fiscal rules or the rules were not sufficiently stringent in good times."

The poor functioning of the current fiscal rules was due both to their design and the way in which they are monitored and enforced, the economists argued.

"Deficit targets give rise to pro-cyclical fiscal policy -– for example, higher expenditures in good times and lower expenditure in bad times," they complained.

Fiscal rules should be "as transparent and simple as possible," the economists wrote.

Monitoring should occur both at a national level -– by an independent national fiscal council –- and "under the oversight of a eurozone fiscal watchdog," the economists suggested.

And enforcement "cannot rely solely on the threat of penalties that are unlikely to be credible," the economists wrote.

"We are drawing the lessons from the eurozone crisis, saying that there was a lack of solidarity, but also a lack of responsibility before the crisis," one of the authors, Philippe Martin, professor at Sciences Po Paris, told AFP.

Source: AFP

US President Donald Trump's planned visit to the World Economic Forum in Davos next week will likely eclipse the long list of other movers and shakers set to attend.

The WEF on Tuesday unveiled its lineup for the annual meeting at the luxury Swiss ski resort town, where this year's focus is on how to create "a shared future in a fractured world."

"We need collaborative efforts," WEF founder and executive chairman Klaus Schwab told reporters in Geneva, warning: "There is today a real danger of a collapse of our global systems... It is in our hands to change the state of the world."

But ironically this year's main attraction will be Trump, who is widely blamed for deepening a number of diplomatic rifts and creating new ones with polarising policy and rhetoric.

Since taking office a year ago, he has doubled down on his "America First" agenda, which stands in stark contrast to the globalisation and regulatory integration popular among the Davos crowd.

The five-day event kicks off Monday and is expected to draw some 3,000 political and business elites, including 70 heads of state and government.

- Trump participation 'essential' -

But attention is expected to be focused squarely on Trump, who will be the first sitting US president to attend the meeting since Bill Clinton in 2000.

A string of US presidents have avoided attending the upscale event, fearing a sojourn to a European ski resort would make them look out of touch.

But Trump is expected to use the opportunity to thumb his nose at the elites who flock to Davos -- a festival of globalism drawing many of his most virulent critics.

Trump has sparked alarm over his decision to pull the United States out of the Paris climate accord, as well as his barrage of criticism against the World Trade Organization and various UN agencies.

He has also pushed tensions to the boiling point with nuclear-armed North Korea and more recently reportedly branded Haiti, El Salvador and countries across Africa as "shitholes".

Schwab said he was thrilled that the US president would attend, pointing out that a major topic of discussion at Davos would be "the future of global cooperation" on issues like trade, the environment and the fight against terrorism.

"It is absolutely essential to have President Trump with us," he said.

The White House has said he will be accompanied by a large delegation, including his son-in-law and advisor Jared Kushner, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin.

As something of a counterweight, former US vice president Al Gore and the country's former top diplomat John Kerry, both Democrats, will also be present.

Trump is slated to deliver a speech before the end of the meeting on Friday, WEF said.

This year's line-up will also be headlined by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who will give the keynote address on Tuesday, and French President Emmanuel Macron, who is scheduled to address the forum on Wednesday.

British Prime Minister Theresa May and her Canadian counterpart Justin Trudeau will attend, as will Israeli premier Benjamin Netanyahu.

The presidents of Brazil, Colombia, Zimbabwe, Switzerland and the European Commission will also be there, along with the kings of Jordan and Spain.

United Nations chief Antonio Guterres will attend, flanked by the heads of the UN agencies for trade, health, labour and human rights, as well as the heads of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund.

The business world will also be well represented, with the leaders of some 1,900 companies expected to be on hand.

- Women in focus? -

A number of Hollywood stars will also be present this year, including movie legend Cate Blanchette.

They may be among those addressing the hot-button issues of gender equality and sexual harassment, after accusations against Hollywood movie mogul Harvey Weinstein erupted into a global reckoning that has shaken artistic, media and political circles worldwide.

Trying to keep in step with the global zeitgeist, WEF organisers boast that the share of women participants this year will be the highest ever at 21 percent.

Among them are high-profile co-chairs including IMF chief Christine Lagarde, head of IBM Ginni Rometty and Norwegian Prime Minister Erna Solberg.

Source: AFP

Anti-riot police fired tear gas and beat protesters with batons Tuesday as hundreds of Sudanese demonstrated against soaring bread prices near a presidential palace in Khartoum, an AFP correspondent said.

Bread prices have more than doubled after a jump in the cost of flour due to dwindling wheat supplies, after the government decided to stop importing grain and allow private companies to do so.

The protest was the biggest in Khartoum since demonstrations erupted in some parts of the country earlier this month following the price increase.

On Tuesday, hundreds of protesters poured into the streets near a presidential palace in central Khartoum after the opposition Communist Party of Sudan called for an anti-government rally.

"No, no to hunger! No, no to high prices!" protesters shouted near the palace.

Police fired tear gas and hit protesters with batons as they tried to break up the protest.

A senior leader from the Communist Party, Siddig Yousif, was detained along with several protesters, the correspondent reported.

Later on Tuesday police dispersed the rally near the palace but protesters staged small demonstrations in nearby streets as they were chased away.

On Monday last week, students also rallied against the rising prices near Khartoum University but police swiftly broke up the protest.

The day before, in the town of Geneina in the war-torn region of Darfur, a student was killed during a similar protest. It was unclear how he was killed.

Anti-government protests erupted after the cost of a 50-kilo (110-pound) sack of flour jumped from 167 ($9) to 450 Sudanese pounds ($25).

Similar protests were held in late 2016 after the government cut fuel subsidies.

The authorities cracked down on those protests to prevent a repeat of the deadly unrest that followed an earlier round of subsidy cuts in 2013.

Dozens of people were killed in 2013 when security forces crushed large street demonstrations, drawing international condemnation.

Tabarak Investment announced today the acquisition of over 80% stake in Abu Dhabi’s Tasweek Real Estate Development and Marketing PJSC.

The acquisition comes as part of Tabarak’s plans to diversify and support its real estate portfolio, which will now include Tasweek’s strategic international real estate investments including its innovative Marrakesh Healthcare City in Morocco, ‘The Haven Lakeside Residences” and Casabrina Vacation Villas in Malaysia.

Commenting on the acquisition, Ahmad Kilani, Chief Executive Officer at Tabarak: “We are delighted to start our investment year with this announcement, which represents a milestone in our opportunistic investment plan for the year. In the near future, Tasweek’s current investment portfolio will witness additional projects that are directly related to Tabarak’s investments.”

He continued: “Tabarak team will continue to navigate the market for favorable opportunities where we can intervene to drive critical change and deliver high financial returns. The core of Tabarak’s investment philosophy is to invest in Emirati ventures that would contribute and support the national economy, in line with the vision of the UAE’s wise leadership.”

Kilani added: “Tasweek’s innovative real estate offerings has proven its unique proposition. Benefiting from our network and market exposure, we are expecting high market demand in Tasweek’s local and international real estate projects.”

Established in 2011 in Abu Dhabi, Tabarak Investment is a private equity firm that transforms companies into outstanding performing businesses, while delivering high-returns to investors. The firm has a fast-growing and expanding portfolio with proven achievements in successful transformative acquisitions of local and international businesses in different industries including real estate, education, insurance, logistics and finance.

Scotland's economy would shrink by 8.5 percent if Britain leaves the EU without a deal, Scottish leader Nicola Sturgeon warned Monday as she pushed for Britain to stay in the European single market.

"There is no option short of EU membership that is as good as being in the EU," First Minister Sturgeon said as she presented an analysis of the economic impact of possible future ties with the bloc.

"This is about degrees of what does the least damage to our economy," she told journalists in the Scottish capital Edinburgh.

According to the new analysis, Scotland's GDP would plunge 8.5 percent by 2030 -- or 12.7 billion pounds ($17.5 billion, 14.3 billion euros) -- if no deal is reached with Brussels and Britain has to fall back on World Trade Organisation rules.

This compares to a 6.1 percent (9.0 billion) fall if a free trade accord is signed with the bloc, and 2.7 percent (4.0 billion) drop if the UK joins the European Economic Area and therefore stays part of the single market.

Sturgeon said the impact study served as "compelling" evidence that Britain should remain part of the single market, if it is not possible to stay an EU member as her Scottish National Party would like.

Scotland backed EU membership by 62 percent in the June 2016 referendum, compared to the overall British vote on 52 percent in favour of Brexit.

The SNP has previously pushed for a second referendum on Scottish independence from Britain, as a result of Brexit, and Sturgeon said Sunday a decision on holding another vote would be taken when the shape of the EU deal becomes clearer.

Sturgeon predicted a majority of British lawmakers would support single market membership, despite Prime Minister Theresa May ruling it out largely owing to its condition of continuing free movement of people.

But the Scottish leader argued the EU migration which comes as part of the single market rules is "essential to our future economic prosperity".

"Growing our population, and particularly our working age population, is perhaps the greatest national challenge that we face," she said.

- Scottish leader 'scaremongering' -

London and Brussels are due to move on to the next stage of Brexit negotiations this year, after achieving "sufficient progress" in December on a preliminary exit agreement.

Sturgeon accused the British government of a "reckless and irresponsible approach" in the negotiations so far, arguing London had entered talks with unachievable aims, and urged the government to put single market membership back on the table.

But the Scottish wing of the ruling Conservative Party accused the SNP of "scaremongering" with its study.

"No-one's doubting that Brexit will pose challenges, but it will bring opportunities too," said Scottish lawmaker Adam Tomkins.

The Conservative government is expected to be further challenged by the SNP over the management of areas such as fishing, which are currently governed through the devolved Scottish Parliament, as Britain prepares legislation to repeal EU laws.

Sturgeon said on Friday the SNP would introduce a bill to ensure Scotland retains the devolved powers after Brexit, in an attempt to avoid a Westminster "power grab".

British construction group Carillion announced its immediate liquidation Monday after the heavily-indebted company failed to secure a financial rescue from the UK government and banks in last-ditch talks.

Carillion, which employs 43,000 staff worldwide including 19,500 in Britain, said that the government would nevertheless provide some funding to allow current state projects to continue, following crunch talks over the weekend.

Analysts warned it could turn out to be a costly mistake by the government, led by Conservative Prime Minister Theresa May.

Carillion chairman Philip Green called it "a very sad day for Carillion" after failing to secure its future.

"In recent days... we have been unable to secure the funding to support our business plan and it is therefore with the deepest regret that we have arrived at this decision," he said in a company statement.

Carillion is a major UK government contractor involved in a wide range of projects from schools to the multi-billion-pound High Speed Two (HS2) railway.

But it has been struggling for some time and in July last year issued the first of several profit warnings.

Carillion on Monday said "it had no choice but to take steps to enter into compulsory liquidation with immediate effect".

It added: "An application was made to the High Court for a compulsory liquidation of Carillion before opening of business today and an order has been granted to appoint the Official Receiver as the liquidator of Carillion."

Despite the red flags, the government continued to award the company major public contracts, including on the flagship HS2 project, leading to criticism.

But the government said it was not its place to prop up the company.

"This is a private sector company, it's regrettable that it's not been able to find a suitable refinancing option with its lenders," Cabinet Office minister David Lidington told BBC radio.

"We did decide that taxpayers can't be expected to bail out a private sector company, particularly when their troubles arose the most part from a side of their business that's nothing to do with UK government contracts," he added.

The government meanwhile advised Carillion staff to still come to work to see through some projects.

"There is no doubt that Carillion posed a huge political challenge for the government, which did not want to be seen to bail out another group of private shareholders and banks after suffering such a backlash from their decisions during the financial crisis," said Rebecca O’Keeffe, head of investment at stockbroker Interactive Investor.

"However, the prospect of the government temporarily funding existing Carillion public service contracts, alongside the likely increase in costs for renegotiating contracts with new suppliers, makes it highly likely that they could ultimately pay far more than if they had provided the guarantees that Carillion's creditors needed."

City Index trading group warned in a client note that "the knock-on effect on the broader economy could be large, given that the potential number of job losses are in the thousands".

- 'Serious questions' -

Union leaders blamed both the government and Carillion management for the company's collapse.

"The blame for this lies squarely with the government who are obsessed with out-sourcing key works to these high risk, private enterprises," said Mick Cash, general secretary of the Rail, Maritime and Transport union.

Jim Kennedy, a senior official at the Unite union, called for a public inquiry and said there were "serious questions that need to be asked and answered about Carillion's conduct", while he questioned also why the government handed "public money to a company that had issued repeated profits warnings".

Andrew Adonis, who resigned as head of a government-backed infrastructure commission last month, said Sunday that the Carillion crisis raised "big questions" for transport minister Chris Grayling.

Carillion has a wide range of public sector contracts, including providing support services for almost 900 schools and around 50,000 homes for military personnel.

The company, with operations also in Canada and the Middle East, had revenues of £5.2 billion ($7.1 billion, 5.9 billion euros) last year.

In January, British watchdog the Financial Conduct Authority launched an investigation into its market updates.

Source: AFP

Two decades ago, Fatima Nolasco walked over the border into the United States in search of a better life, going on to build a successful business, and a new home.

Now, after Donald Trump decided to end a program that has allowed her to work legally in the country, along with 200,000 fellow immigrants from El Salvador, she fears she is about to lose it all.

Unless Congress can find a long-term solution to replace the Temporary Protected Status (TPS) program granted to Salvadorans in 2001 after two earthquakes devastated their country -- Nolasco will lose her legal immigration rights in September 2019.

Under the plan's protections, Nolasco started a small construction and home remodeling business with her husband Walter Dubon, a permanent legal resident.

Today, they employ 20 workers and pay up to $30,000 a year in business taxes, on top of individual taxes.

"We've been paying taxes for 16 years," she said. "We never thought this would end like this. We always had hope that they would give us the opportunity."

Nolasco notes that her family does not rely on any government aid. In fact, TPS recipients do not qualify for needs-based government programs, but do contribute to them through payroll taxes.

- Economic hit -

"We have given ourselves a decent life as a result of our work and effort. I hope they realize we are not a burden on the country," she told AFP in an interview at her home near the capital Washington, which hosts a large population of Salvadorans.

While Trump takes credit for solid growth and jobs gains during his first year in office, economists and business leaders warn that expelling immigrant workers wholesale would cause a major hit to the economy.

This would be especially damaging at a time when firms increasingly complain they cannot find workers, especially in fields like construction -- a particular concern for rebuilding efforts in hurricane-hit areas of Houston and Florida.

One analysis shows that if Salvadoran TPS holders as well as tens of thousands from Honduras and Haiti were removed from the labor force, the United States would lose $164 billion in GDP over the next decade -- without counting $6.9 billion in lost contributions to Social Security and Medicare.

As much as 88 percent of those immigrants work -- much higher than the rate among US citizens -- while about a third own homes. Many, like Nolasco, own businesses.

If sent home, they face an uncertain future.

While the US government deems that conditions in El Salvador no longer justify protected status for its citizens, it still has a travel warning cautioning Americans that "gang activity, such as extortion, violent street crime and narcotics and arms trafficking, is widespread."

- 'We consider ourselves American' -

Trump has also announced the end of another program providing legal status to immigrants who were brought to the country as young children.

If Congress fails find a compromise, 800,000 people covered by the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) will lose their protections March 5.

Economists warn the US could lose $215 billion in GDP if the so-called "Dreamers" leave the labor pool.

Amazon, Apple, Facebook and Google were among more than 100 major companies whose top executives signed a letter calling for protection for the "Dreamers," and warning that failure to act "will lead to businesses losing valuable talent, cause disruptions in the workforce and will result in significant costs."

Miguel Aguiler, who was brought to the United States from Mexico when he was 11, has found a route to legal status, but fears for his fellow "Dreamers."

"It's pretty ridiculous that the president wants to do away with so many young people who do nothing but contribute to this country," he told AFP.

"We've lived here all our lives, we consider ourselves American, even though we don't have the paper to show it."

He is a shining example of the American dream.

After passage of DACA, he attended a US college on a soccer scholarship and then was drafted to play in the domestic professional soccer league -- the first undocumented immigrant to achieve that goal.

He later married a US citizen, his college sweetheart, which allowed him to gain status as a permanent legal resident with a so-called green card.

Ali Noorani, executive director of the National Immigration Forum, is optimistic Democrats and Republicans in Congress will find a solution to help "Dreamers."

"For better or for worse, the administration has provided a deadline to Congress to figure this out," he told AFP.

source: AFP

Two decades ago, Fatima Nolasco walked over the border into the United States in search of a better life, going on to build a successful business, and a new home.

Now, after Donald Trump decided to end a program that has allowed her to work legally in the country, along with 200,000 fellow immigrants from El Salvador, she fears she is about to lose it all.

Unless Congress can find a long-term solution to replace the Temporary Protected Status (TPS) program granted to Salvadorans in 2001 after two earthquakes devastated their country -- Nolasco will lose her legal immigration rights in September 2019.

Under the plan's protections, Nolasco started a small construction and home remodeling business with her husband Walter Dubon, a permanent legal resident.

Today, they employ 20 workers and pay up to $30,000 a year in business taxes, on top of individual taxes.

"We've been paying taxes for 16 years," she said. "We never thought this would end like this. We always had hope that they would give us the opportunity."

Nolasco notes that her family does not rely on any government aid. In fact, TPS recipients do not qualify for needs-based government programs, but do contribute to them through payroll taxes.

- Economic hit -

"We have given ourselves a decent life as a result of our work and effort. I hope they realize we are not a burden on the country," she told AFP in an interview at her home near the capital Washington, which hosts a large population of Salvadorans.

While Trump takes credit for solid growth and jobs gains during his first year in office, economists and business leaders warn that expelling immigrant workers wholesale would cause a major hit to the economy.

This would be especially damaging at a time when firms increasingly complain they cannot find workers, especially in fields like construction -- a particular concern for rebuilding efforts in hurricane-hit areas of Houston and Florida.

One analysis shows that if Salvadoran TPS holders as well as tens of thousands from Honduras and Haiti were removed from the labor force, the United States would lose $164 billion in GDP over the next decade -- without counting $6.9 billion in lost contributions to Social Security and Medicare.

As much as 88 percent of those immigrants work -- much higher than the rate among US citizens -- while about a third own homes. Many, like Nolasco, own businesses.

If sent home, they face an uncertain future.

While the US government deems that conditions in El Salvador no longer justify protected status for its citizens, it still has a travel warning cautioning Americans that "gang activity, such as extortion, violent street crime and narcotics and arms trafficking, is widespread."

- 'We consider ourselves American' -

Trump has also announced the end of another program providing legal status to immigrants who were brought to the country as young children.

If Congress fails find a compromise, 800,000 people covered by the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) will lose their protections March 5.

Economists warn the US could lose $215 billion in GDP if the so-called "Dreamers" leave the labor pool.

Amazon, Apple, Facebook and Google were among more than 100 major companies whose top executives signed a letter calling for protection for the "Dreamers," and warning that failure to act "will lead to businesses losing valuable talent, cause disruptions in the workforce and will result in significant costs."

Miguel Aguiler, who was brought to the United States from Mexico when he was 11, has found a route to legal status, but fears for his fellow "Dreamers."

"It's pretty ridiculous that the president wants to do away with so many young people who do nothing but contribute to this country," he told AFP.

"We've lived here all our lives, we consider ourselves American, even though we don't have the paper to show it."

He is a shining example of the American dream.

After passage of DACA, he attended a US college on a soccer scholarship and then was drafted to play in the domestic professional soccer league -- the first undocumented immigrant to achieve that goal.

He later married a US citizen, his college sweetheart, which allowed him to gain status as a permanent legal resident with a so-called green card.

Ali Noorani, executive director of the National Immigration Forum, is optimistic Democrats and Republicans in Congress will find a solution to help "Dreamers."

"For better or for worse, the administration has provided a deadline to Congress to figure this out," he told AFP.

source: AFP

Despite repeatedly vowing to reduce its energy dependency on Moscow, Europe is more reliant on Russian gas than ever before -- and there are few signs of this trend reversing.

Russian gas giant Gazprom said this month it had completed record deliveries towards Europe and Turkey in 2017 at a total of 193.9 billion cubic metres -- eight percent higher than its previous record, set in 2016.

This result was not only a financial victory for the company, whose exports are its main source of profit, but also a political one at a time when diplomatic relations between Russia and the European Union are at their worst since the Cold War.

The numbers "show the increasing demand from European countries for Russian gas, but also the reliability of these deliveries in the required amount," Gazprom's chairman Alexei Miller said.

Deliveries to Germany and Austria reached a historic high and exports to France rose by 6.7 percent compared to 2016, according to Gazprom's figures.

Brussels set goals to diversify its energy sources following a series of gas crises between Moscow and Kiev that affected deliveries to Europe. But the percentage of Russian gas in Europe has only increased in recent years and now represents a third of the total gas consumption in the EU.

That goal was reinforced by tensions between Brussels and Moscow following the start of the Ukrainian crisis in 2014 that led to fears of Moscow using its gas leverage for geopolitical means.

Meanwhile, diversification became easier to achieve with the development of the market for liquefied natural gas (LNG), which is transported by ship rather than pipelines, allowing for the import of supplies from Qatar and even the United States.

However a number of factors have worked to push up consumption of Russian gas.

According to Valery Nesterov, an oil and gas analyst at Russian bank Sberbank CIB, EU demand for gas is rising due to "economic recovery" in Europe and thanks to gas prices being "more competitive" than those of coal.

Other reasons pushing up demand include cold winters, the decline of European (mainly Dutch) gas output and the closure of nuclear power plants, such as in Germany.

If Nesterov envisages a possible reduction of Russian exports to EU this year after record results in 2017, he nonetheless says the general tendency will not change: "Gazprom will likely keep its market share in the EU."

- 'Schizophrenia' -

Strong European demand has allowed Gazprom to increase production after weak results in recent years due to a decline of its market share on its home market and the loss of Ukraine, an important client which stopped buying Russian gas in 2015.

Gazprom is also looking to develop new pipelines with the support of major European companies to maintain its part in the market. But the EU is wary.

Brussels blocked South Stream, a Russian project to ease exports to southern European nations, and has been resisting other projects such as TurkStream, a pipeline planned via Turkey, and North Stream 2, via the Baltic Sea, which Gazprom justifies as necessary for the increased European demand in the future.

"A sort of schizophrenia exists between Europe's diplomacy and its market. The market chooses the cheapest gas to produce and use in Europe, which is Russian gas. Europe is said to be too dependent but nothing has been done to change this," said Thierry Bros, researcher at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.

"We could say that the speed limit signs are in place but they are ineffective because there is no speed check. There are mechanisms for regulation but there is nothing to verify that they are respected," he added.
 
And Russia is not content with just pipelines. The country recently took a major step into the LNG market by launching the Yamal LNG terminal in the Arctic, financed by Russian gas producer Novatek with the help of France's Total. The Yamal project will supply both Europe and Asia via sea routes.

Diversification for the EU is prevented by a simple obstacle, said Thierry Bros: it "requires additional costs and the question is: who is going to pay?"

source: AFP

Tunisian President Beji Caid Essebsi was to hold talks Saturday with political parties, unions and employers to discuss means to overcome unrest triggered by austerity measures.

The North African country has been shaken by a wave of protests over poverty and unemployment during which hundreds have been arrested before the unrest tapered off.

The demonstrations broke out ahead of Sunday’s seventh anniversary of the toppling of veteran dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali in a revolt that sparked uprisings across the Arab region.

The trigger of the protests last Sunday was a finance law imposing tax hikes after a year of rising prices.

A man in his 40s died in unrest on Monday night in the northern town of Tebourba though police have insisted they did not kill him.

Interior ministry spokesman Khlifa Chibani on Saturday said a total of 803 people suspected of taking part in acts of violence, theft and looting have been arrested this week.

Some 97 security forces and members of civil protection units were also injured, he said. There was no immediate toll for the number of protesters injured in the unrest.

Calm returned to the country on Thursday night and there was “no attack against public or private property” in the night of Friday to Saturday, Chibani said.

AFP correspondents reported one small protest overnight Friday in the central city of Sidi Bouzid — the cradle of the 2011 Arab Spring uprising — and said police fired tear gas to disperse the demonstrators.

Tunisia is considered a rare success story of the Arab Spring uprisings that began in the North African country in 2011 and spread across the region, toppling autocrats.

But the authorities have failed to resolve the issues of poverty and unemployment.

Essebsi was expected to discuss a way out of the latest crisis with representatives of political parties, the powerful UGTT trade union and the UTICA employers federation.

In 2015, UTICA — an acronym for the Confederation of Industry, Trade and Handicrafts — shared a Nobel Prize with the UGTT for their work during Tunisia’s transition towards democracy after the revolution.

Protests are common in Tunisia in January, when people mark the anniversary of the revolution that ousted Ben Ali.

This year, the country has seen rising anger after the government adopted the 2018 budget which includes hikes in value-added tax, on mobile phones and real estate as well as in social contributions.
 

Source: AFP

Even with President Donald Trump continuing to waive nuclear sanctions, Iran's economy remains hobbled by US restrictions but some diplomats in Tehran remain quietly confident for the future.

The real problem in Iran right now, everyone in the international business community agrees, is uncertainty.

That was not helped by Trump's announcement on Friday that he would waive nuclear-related sanctions, but only once more and that Europe must work with Washington to "fix the deal's disastrous flaws, or the United States will withdraw".

"No one has any idea what's going on. Trump has introduced so many layers of uncertainty," a Western trade official in Tehran told AFP on condition of anonymity.

"That's not necessarily negative. Things could actually improve if Trump pulls out of the deal. The Europeans could stay and the EU could provide protections for its industries against US sanctions," he said.

"Or things could get even worse. We just don't know."

On the surface, Trump's vitriolic stance appears disastrous for the 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and world powers, which lifted many sanctions in exchange for curbs to the country's nuclear programme.

Even as he confirmed the waiver of nuclear sanctions on Friday, Trump added yet more sanctions related to human rights and Iran's missile programme, adding to a vast web of restrictions that have scared off many Western companies.

Major foreign banks have been particularly cautious of re-entering Iran, dreading a repeat of the record-breaking $8.9 billion penalty levelled on France's BNP Paribas for breaching US sanctions on Iran and other countries.

There seems little hope of hitting the government target of $50 billion in foreign investment per year, with the government saying less than $3.4 billion was achieved in 2016.

- 'Deals in complete silence' -

But European diplomats say a lot is happening behind the scenes.

Deals for things like industrial equipment, solar parks and dairy farms have been quietly building over the past two years.

"I'm still cautiously optimistic," said a European diplomat.

"Many firms have invested so much they can't pull out. They will find a way to make it work whatever Trump does."

The big difference under Trump is secrecy.

"Deals are going on in complete silence. There's no advantage to discussing it. Many have interests in the US or an American investor. They don't want to make themselves a target," said the Western trade official.

Some bigger firms -- particularly the French -- have been less coy.

French energy giant Total signed a $5 billion gas deal in June, while carmakers Peugeot and Renault have already reopened production lines.

Italy pointedly announced a $6 billion credit line for development projects just days before Trump's latest attack on the deal.

"The divide between Europe and the US is widening. It's been more than a year that President Trump is trying to undermine this deal but he's basically failing," said Farid Dehdilani, international affairs advisor for the Iranian Privatisation Organisation.

- 'Nothing is happening' -

Nonetheless, the initial excitement that accompanied the nuclear deal has evaporated.

"I was working in the stock market when the deal was signed, and we were so excited and hopeful, but when I check with friends in brokerages now, nothing is happening," said Tehran-based economic analyst Navid Kalhor.

"The only sectors that get any interest are commodities: oil, mining, petrochemicals. But oil money cannot solve all our problems," he said.

Iran's return to international oil markets helped propel its economic growth rate to more than 12 percent last year, but unemployment remains huge and the energy sector can only create few jobs at a time.

"Look at the protests -- ordinary people are not optimistic about the future," said Kalhor, referring to the deadly unrest that rocked dozens of Iranian cities over the new year, sparked by anger over unemployment and poor governance.

"We need better and more reliable trade partners, and more access to international markets. We are mostly borrowing money rather than attracting investment. This can cause more problems in future when we have to service our debts. It's a vicious circle," he added.

The problem, many Iranians are quick to emphasise, does not lie just with Trump.

Years of mismanagement and corruption would make Iran a tricky investment destination even without US antagonism.

"We have to facilitate foreign investment by eliminating unnecessary bureaucracy: the three or four months needed to get permits, for instance," said Dehdilani.

"In the end, the success of the nuclear deal relies on Iranians."

Source: AFP

Emmanuel Besnier, scion of the secretive family behind one of the world's biggest dairy groups, is often called "the invisible billionaire", unknown to the French public and even to his own employees.

 Strong growth data in Germany came as welcome news Thursday for politicians haggling over spending and unions battling for more pay, although observers warn the good times can't last forever.

Gross domestic product in Europe's top economy grew by 2.2 percent in 2017, the fastest rate since 2011, according to federal statistics authority Destatis.

The performance, in line with forecasts from leading economic think-tanks and the OECD, was driven by a sharp pick-up in growth in investments and exports.

At the same time, expansion in private and government consumption slowed compared with 2016.

Overall, growth was almost one percentage point higher than the 1.3-percent average recorded over the past 10 years.

Germany also notched up a record government budget surplus of 1.2 percent of GDP, Destatis said.

It was "a strong performance by an economy firing on all cylinders," commented ING Diba bank economist Carsten Brzeski, arguing that the same factors that have favoured the economy will stay in place over the coming year.

Defying fears of a new era of protectionism after the US election of Donald Trump, exports grew by 4.7 percent in 2017, compared with 2.6 percent the previous year.

Meanwhile, historic low interest rates set by the European Central Bank, a euro that has not strengthened against other currencies in step with the continent's economic recovery, high levels of employment and a broad-based upturn across the 19-nation eurozone all favour continued expansion for Germany.

But the picture is not entirely rosy for Berlin, Brzeski warned.

"Strong growth performance has led to reform complacency. Under the surface of strong growth, deficiencies in areas like digitalisation, services and education have emerged," he said.

"The next government still has the unique opportunity to tackle these challenges in good times and not wait until the bad times have started."

- How to spend it -

As the statisticians unveiled the nation's economic performance in Berlin's government quarter, Germany's leading politicians gathered in the Social Democratic Party (SPD) headquarters across town.

Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservatives are making a last-ditch attempt to strike a coalition deal with the centre-left SPD -- a prospect greeted with reluctance on both sides after four years sharing power cost both parties dearly in September elections.

Nevertheless, politicians' mouths are watering at the prospect of having billions of euros of additional cash to pay for tax cuts, public spending or increased investment.

Over four days of talks since Sunday, the negotiators have racked up a wishlist totalling some 100 billion euros ($119.5 billion) for the coming four years, newspaper Rheinische Post reported Wednesday.

But many of those hopes could be dashed Thursday, as the finance ministry calculates that just 45 billion euros will be available in federal coffers.

It would be a "tough day" of talks, Merkel told reporters as she arrived, vowing to "work constructively to find the necessary compromises".

Not to be left out, the powerful metalworkers' union IG Metall has taken to the streets with a series of "warning strikes" this week, demanding bosses grant them a six-percent pay rise and the option to switch to a 28-hour week for up to two years.

There has been little sign of movement from employers so far, who have labelled the workers' demands illegal and threatened to sue to prevent further industrial action.

Employee representatives and company leaders will return to the negotiating table Thursday afternoon, with longer, more devastating strikes on the cards if talks go badly.

Source: AFP

Britain’s exit from the European Union could cost the UK almost 500,000 jobs and nearly 50 billion pounds ($68 billion) in investment by 2030, according to a study commissioned by the mayor of London.

In a worst-case scenario, Britain would lose 482,000 jobs and 46.7 billion pounds ($62.9 billion) in investments in the next 12 years, according to research published Thursday by Cambridge Econometrics.

The report compares four possible post-Brexit scenarios to the option of remaining in the bloc, which has already been ruled out by the British government.

The most optimistic Brexit scenario outlined, of a two-year transition period leading to single market membership without the customs union, would still lead to a loss of 176,000 jobs and 20.2 billion in investment.

London Mayor Sadiq Khan, who campaigned against Brexit and commissioned the study, said the findings show "the potential economic risks and human costs at stake in the negotiations" in Brussels.

In a statement, the pro-EU mayor accused the government of a "complete lack of preparation" in assessing the consequences of Brexit.

Khan said it was “astonishing” that British Prime Minister Theresa May’s government had failed to do any analyses.

“This new analysis shows why the government should now change its approach and negotiate a deal that enables us to remain in both the single market and the customs union,” he said.

Transition arrangements, trade and security will be on the agenda of Brexit negotiations later this year before Britain leaves the bloc in March 2019.

The EU has slashed UK’s economic growth forecast for 2018 and said the slowdown would continue through 2019 as uncertainties over Brexit weigh on the economy.

Brussels believes that the British economy will slow to 1.3 percent in 2018 and 1.1 percent in 2019.

The figures put Britain's economy lowest in the bloc with Italy, and far behind the growth rate predicted for the euro area, which is expected to be 2.2 percent this year and 2.1 percent in 2018.

Source: AFP